My fellow Kossacks, I know that a lot of you are irritated at Nate Silver right now. However, please, take it from me: don't fool yourself that the polls or the poll analysts are all off.
In 2004, via MyDD.com where I was blogging at the time, I became a little Internet famous by claiming that something called the "incumbent rule" would result in undecideds overwhelmingly choosing Kerry. This meant, according to me, that the polls showing a small Bush lead were providing a misleading view of the race and that, in fact, Kerry was narrowly ahead.
We all know how that turned out. I was the one who was wrong, not the polls. It was a hugely embarrassing public error on my part, and I had to eat a lot of crow.
Whether the analysts saying Trump has a 12% chance of winning are right, or those saying he has a 32% chance are right, I don't know. But the truth is that they not that different from each other, and are all basically saying the same thing: Clinton is ahead but not by enough that this is a sure win for her.
I've spent a lot of time looking at polls these past 16 years, and I have totally seen polls miss races this close before. It happens--not often, but it does happen.
It's going to be a late night on Tuesday, most likely. This isn't over. Trump can definitely still win. Please, take it from me, go vote, and help GOTV.